Random, and how to live with it

Xcom 2 again proved that Firaxis is one of the few companies that can do good step -by -step strategies. It is still surprising that the genre, which was prophesied by death at the beginning of the two thousandth, may look better than competitors and create surprisingly dynamic situations with the complete absence of the need to rush somewhere.

But go to any discussion of XCOM, and you will one hundred percent will find comments or funny pictures with the same problem – random.

Typical situation in xcom2. The soldiers are point blank, but the chance of a miss is surprisingly high for such a situation

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85% hit? Most of the commander will say that his soldier with such misses. 100%? You will laugh, but there are documented cases of a miss and with such chances.

Not only on XCOM: EU and Xcom 2, a flurry of criticism fell: someone about the good Battle For Wesnoth strategy, and the bad word about its combat system, which is entirely based on the same percentage of hit.

Where does such hatred of chance come from, how it works and why is it necessary? And, most importantly, how do we live with her? We will figure it out.

When we are talking about random numbers generators, there are exactly two chairs that are divided into many stools: hardware generators and alien generators.

In the first case, the device generates the sequence of random numbers based on measured, randomly changing parameters of the flowing physical process. Take a simple hexagonal cube – in front of you is the simplest generator. Take a radioactive substance, a Geiger counter and convert its crackling into digital signals – you get a little advanced. The advantages of any of these methods in guaranteeing complete unpredictability. The disadvantage is in the time of calculations and some cumbersome.

The Dungeon & Dragons board games use twenty -sided cubes, since six are too few for the whole set of options what can happen.

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In the second case (just our case), specially written algorithms are used that generate a sequence of numbers. They are called pseudo -ramps just for this method of obtaining numbers. The algorithms are predetermined and their sequence is purely statistically cannot be random. Which, however, is not required, because in practice it is enough for this algorithm to pass at least most of the tests for accident. And the speed of these algorithms makes them much more profitable than any true generators of random results.

Most expects that the article will talk about just working generators who bring trouble to players with their bugs. And I hasten to please you – no. Moreover, within the framework of the article we will not talk about them at all. It is too difficult to establish the fact of the presence of a bug in a random, unlike the “bugs” that we will inspect. Yes, and errors in the style of the 56th bug from Medieval: Total War – Viking Invasion item is more of a separate and funny article.

The joke is that if the players will suffer honestly with random even more. The situation can be easily disassembled by the example of the long -suffering xcom 2. Suppose you play at the very initial level of complexity. The chance of hitting the enemy is 85%, and you smear. The next fighter stands nearby, and on the numbers his chance is all the same 85%. But only on numbers. In fact, due to the features of the level of complexity, hidden 10% of success due to previous miss are added to your chance. As a result, the next shot is already from 95%. Well, if the gods of chaos are not on your side again, then the third will be 100%at once, due to the accumulating bonus.

The most interesting thing is that in Xcom 2 these hidden bonuses continue to you up to the very last level of complexity. True, only on legend, the last of 4 levels of complexity, the developers made random in the game honest for all.

Now remember all these complaints about dishonest chances, about how clumsy soldiers smear by 99%, and think about how it combines with all these concessions from the developer? And how bitterly would Yaroslavna cried if there weren’t such a handicap!

Not only XCOM fell victim https://everygamecasino.co.uk/ to the criticism of the players. The excellent Battle For Wesnoth strategy is subjected to numerous attacks because of a similar combat system: the chance of hitting depends on the positioning of soldiers and blind luck. The Great Korean random on sharpening of weapons was a full-fledged deity of the Gamer Pantheon because of their unpredictability, and the World of Tanks players are constantly unsubscribing about his younger brother-Belarusian random.

In the “spring” the chance of hitting a soldier depends on the type of area where he stands, and his personal session skills in this area. And from the time of day the damage increases or decreases.

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Where does hatred of interest come from? Since we have already agreed to believe that the generator of random numbers in the games analyzed works conditionally correctly, there are several reasons:

1. Psychological – It is much easier for the player to remember the offensive pile of the random than the most rare luck by 1%.A person is used to considering success as a granted. And misses – as cruel injustice.
2. Mathematical. Yes, 50% on hitting does not mean that every second hit will be successful. Even 4 misses in a row can happen, for the chances are 1 \ 16 =! 0. But tell me honestly, you will remember this little thing after four misses, or you will just blaze with hatred for the game?

As we see, the whole problem of the random in games is the players. The creator is tender, and he wants to win, and the element of chance adds unpredictability to the game. And unpredictability is a great opportunity to lose.

The flight of pools of bullets is just a clever illusion – the chances of a successful hit are clearly visible, and in the game it is easy to notice that bullets fly into a target only when the cubes said the good to getting.

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It turns out that the main task of developers to make random in their games as dishonest as possible is in favor of the player, of course. In the old X-Com there was no difference for the game where to generate aliens-far from the card, or immediately by the ramp. On the captures of large backwater, everything often ended and not having time to begin-immediately at the ramp stands a good sectoid with Blaster-laucer and ends this episode of war with one spit. Called this a bug will not turn a bug, but they tried to remove the problem in any followers and continuation of the games. It would seem that this is quite an honest probability for the victory of AI, but it annoys the player because she leaves him helpless! And it doesn’t matter that the basis of tactics in any X-Com is to make the enemy helpless and defeat it-it cannot be used by the same methods if the developer does not want to kill interest.

Of course, an attempt to edit numbers is suitable only for games where the percentage of hitting is always before our eyes. Of course, the hidden throws of invisible cubes occur not only in strategies – in Knight of the Old Republic and D&D games, each blow is also calculated by complex throws on hits, damage and evasion. In Dungeon Crowler-ah like Diablo, interest is present in the form of equipment bonuses. Why isn’t complaints about them? Well, for the most part, because we do not see these cubes! Most players even think weakly why and how the characters beat, and the dynamism of the game in pseudo-real time masks a series of mistakes: you are too easy not to notice them in the fever of the use of numerous features.

But sometimes shitty balance cannot create the illusion of honesty of chance. In Mechwarrior IV in one of the missions, we are suddenly given alarm and demand that we move as soon as possible to help the ally. How is it done in normal games? The timer turns on, and as soon as we approach the desired point there, both the goal and the enemies attacking it. But in this game everyone did honestly – the allies really ambushed, and they are shot all the time while we are running to them. Feel what I’m getting at? Exactly – if you are not lucky, then they will die faster than the player will even have time to approach. Or they will die just when you fit. The misses and accuracy of AI in most games are calculated by the same cubes, and in this case, although they wanted to make a realistic situation, they received only a ruthless exam for your luck.

There is an example of a lousy balance in Xenonauts. When ordering recruits, they try to take only those who have good parameters. What to do if all options only have terrible stats? Buy disabled people who are not able to shoot! Too much difference between the minimum and the maximum in the generated parameters often leads to such problems.

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What happens in the end? Where the developers hid cubes well, there are no complaints. Where everything lies on the surface a lot of screams. The whole thing is that we have, what to lose our own failures? In addition to those where cubes really act dishonestly and create a false call – yes. In XCOM: EU is an excellent random number generator that gives adequate results. But since his work is not covered by anything, players receive their scapegoat.

The developers are well aware that the player does not want to lose, but wants to enjoy victory. And if for this you need to disguise the work of the game systems or make the probability calculation a little dishonest in its favor – they are happy to use several of their dishonest techniques, for which we will proceed them in both cheeks.

But before looking at the ways of fighting developers with honesty, let’s see what random it happens in games.

Immediately determine the terminology – random is when we cannot influence the final result. The maximum that we can change his probability in the larger direction, but the probability of a complete failure remains no matter what, and we will not affect it in any way. When we can lie down behind the hill and aim for a long time to make a successful shot – this is not a random. When we order a soldier to lie down behind the hill, because this is +10% to accuracy, aim for the sake of +15% and wait for the weather for an additional 5% to end up 99% – this is random. The local situation of guaranteed success can be created, but most of the time we enjoy random results.

The first and highest degree of nervous type of accidents is all or nothing. Hence the notorious Korean random. When hidden weapons to plus the numbers in most MMO, two options are given: either improvement will be established or all successes will disappear at all. You can’t influence the process in any way, all that is a chance on the screen and simple luck.

Then the XCOM and Wesnoth model is going on – the positioning of the fighters on the map and \ or special opportunities can affect the success of the hit, but in most cases the chance of hitting will still remain in the hands of Fortune. It may already be possible to influence the enemy, but again in the simplest things like an increase in the chance of hitting or damage.

Relatively “honest” random is used in more serious games like Wargame: Red Dragon, Warhammer 40,000: Armageeddon or Panzer Corps. The number of variables that can be influenced, but also the difference in the resulting result, depending on the number of the detachment, the strength of its weapons, morality and support, is also added to. The Imperial Guard detachment in Armageddon consists of 30 people, and the chance of getting each individual fighter is his own, which is why situations are easily obtained when a successful volley of a crowd of weak soldiers is more effective than powerful volleys of only three tanks.

We were lucky – each of the 25 flamethrowers found his victim. Large detachments in Armageddon are bad in that strong, but small troops will destroy them for too long. 5 tanks will not be able to make more than 5 corpses per salvo.

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It is easy to see that the degree of “normality” of chance is directly proportional to the number of ways, thanks to which it can be influenced. But this is only one of the ways of developers to “fix” dishonest random.

What honest and not very ways developers use to deceive the player, and make the game for him more supple?

The first has already been described a little higher: hidden bonuses and fines. In some small hidden variable, it is prescribed +10% for each miss, and now it turns out that even the most unsuccessful person will be able to gain 100%. Most often, similar debuffs are given to the enemy – that is, cutting the chances of success.

Another method consists in the artificial limitation of the game and creating certain script works of “accidents”. For example, in Heroes of Might and Magic V there is a property of ghosts of the non -fertilizer castle, thanks to which they can evade all physical attacks with a 50% chance. In the first versions of the game, these were precisely interest, and the players joyfully reported a terrible bug: how so, the ghost to evade and four times in a row! The developers were tired of listening to this, and soon the “bug” was featured: now only one of two attacks were avoided. It seems that everything remained in place, but the element of chance was replaced by predictability.
But any developer’s tricks will always come across the fact that the chance of a miss or failure will remain. What to do to us, players, especially if the good uncle Sid also blocks the “Sevsk” – the ability to boot and transfer the cubes?
Although this applies to the topic and weakly, but once they started, it is worth mentioning: more often AI is limited to specially. Very often this is found in various serious Wargame-ah: the enemy goes according to a given scenario and you can only cope with this situation. In XCOM2, the sector will most often use a useless psionica even when there is no one to support it, and the Lancers will run into the close battle of spit on any self -preservation instinct. This is the removal of an element of randomness at a global level. Most often, we have no opportunities to read the enemy’s documents and find out what he has planned, and such behaviors allow an experienced player without unnecessary problems to immediately understand how the enemy will go, and how to answer it. Just like in chess we should know how other people’s figures will walk.

But no matter how the developers try for us, to understand what they did anyway to us. What remains to do to the player when the fate of the whole battle depends on the gods of chaos?

First of all, random teaches us to always leave scope for the spare option. The first missed – the second. The second will miss – the third. Statistics can fight on our side, I allow every failure to increase the chance of success

The second follows from the first – leave the place of luck! Yes, misses by 95% happen – with the same frequency as hit by 25%. As an avid amateur Iron-Man, in XCOM, I can confirm that a successful critical shot along the muton in full shelter more than once or twice saved the team. If possible, without risking, make an almost hopeless blow – do. It will get well, it will not hit not scary.

The chances of hitting were small, but a successful critical shot sharply changed the situation on the battlefield in our favor.

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And the third is already exclusively to the psychological side. Stop complaining. Yes, failures happen. No, don’t remember them. Take into account, but do not treat as something particularly terrible. Inquisitive interest for that is created to ruin the best plans.

In conclusion, I can readily say that the best rand is that is the one that is absent. Yes, it is impossible to get rid of it completely (even the outbreak of arrows in Mount and Blade is determined by a throw of many invisible cubes, although we aim in their usual form), but the better it is disguised and the stronger we can influence it, the better. Cubes in the style of board games from XCOM, and this is still primarily laziness developers. Cubes can make simple mechanics, but for a computer it is too ridiculous. Modern technologies allow us to create whole galaxies in SPORE and worlds in Minecraft using procedural generation, which can give out quite beautiful landscapes. Why are the developers are embarrassed to work on beautiful and relatively honest ballistics for games? There are many reasons.
In any case, my opinion is that the capabilities of the computer should be used at full power. The misses point blank by 85% are offended not because of that they happen, but due to the fact that for some reason they exist, spitting on the laws of logic and common sense.